Copper is vital for the energy transition, but Europe still imports 50%+ of what it needs.

Global demand is set to double from 25 Mt (2020) to over 50 Mt by 2050. EVs use 4× more copper than combustion cars, while wind and solar require copper-heavy infrastructure. In Europe, demand is projected to rise ~35%.

But mine output just can’t keep up.

• Europe has a structural shortfall. EU mines cover just ~20% of the bloc’s 4.1 Mt annual demand. Copper is now listed as a Strategic Raw Material under the CRM Act.
• Supply is highly concentrated. About 45% of reserves are in unstable regions like the DR Congo and Latin America. In 2023, unrest in Peru put 30% of national output at risk, halting major mines like Las Bambas. In 2025, the DRC extended its cobalt export ban, a reminder of how quickly governments can disrupt supply chains.
• China dominates refining, producing just 1.8 Mt but controlling up to 53% of global refined copper output. The U.S. has launched a national security review and imposed 50% tariffs in order to strengthen its own production.

In my view, Europe is at risk of falling behind.

The EU signed supply deals with Canada, Ukraine, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Chile, Zambia, and DR Congo to promote ethical sourcing and diversify supply. But partnerships and recycling can’t match demand. Many partner countries — like Namibia, Indonesia, Chile — are restricting raw exports or pushing for more local value creation.

These nations also face growing domestic demand, making long-term supply to Europe uncertain. Europe must boost domestic mining and refining to stay competitive and secure its energy transition.

At Alpha, this is top of mind when we are reviewing investments. We look to unlock new supply, enable greener extraction and refining, and power smarter, more efficient use across the energy transition.