We’re consuming more energy than ever.

Despite record investments in renewables, global energy use continues to rise, driven by industrialization, electrification, and AI.

Old sources haven’t disappeared

Coal use has more than doubled since 1980. It still provides ~28% of global energy and over a third of electricity, especially in China, India, and Southeast Asia.
– Oil and gas remain dominant worldwide. So far, there’s no full “transition”; only diversification at the margins.

Energy systems don’t evolve through clean breaks. New sources rarely eliminate old ones. They’re persistent, but not because they’re better. It’s typically because demand is growing faster than clean alternatives can scale.

It’s this persistence (and in some cases dependence) that delays net zero.

Every new wave of demand (from EVs to heat pumps to AI) adds another energy layer instead of replacing the old one.

tl;dr:

We’re burning more, not less. This trend has held for as long as nations have been industrializing.

Some specific minerals also persist. Copper, for example, is what I have often called the “most technology-agnostic metal.” It seems that regardless of the specific innovation, copper is always near the top of the Bill of Materials.

– Developed economies phase out coal, then offshore steel and aluminium manufacture to coal-heavy regions like China.
– Solar and wind are scaling, but they need massive amounts of minerals, which require fossil fuels to mine and refine.

There is a “clean energy transition” happening, but it’s slow, uneven, and often undermined by the very systems it’s trying to change.

In some cases, even the transition supply chain is under strain

The backbone of the transition (mining, metals, refining) is energy intensive. And it’s being outbid.

AI is having a simply massive impact on power demand:
– Data centers may consume up to 8% of global electricity by 2040 (more than aviation).
– In the U.S., power use by data centers is projected to rise 130% by 2030, reaching 425 TWh, or nearly half of total new demand.
– Hyperscalers lock in power at $100–115/MWh, while smelters (aluminium, copper, nickel) require $40/MWh to survive.

Result

Smelters are shutting down. In the U.S., only 6 primary aluminium smelters remain, down from 33 in 1980. Europe faces similar closures.
Without domestic smelting, Western countries lose control over critical materials and become more dependent on China or the DRC.

What does this mean?

If the sectors that enable the energy transition, like mining and refining, can’t afford energy, the system risks collapse.
That’s why we back technologies that reduce the energy intensity of extraction, digitize and optimize industrial operations, and support cleaner, more cost-efficient metals production.
A future with both renewables and the infrastructure to sustain them.

At Alpha Future Funds, we’re enabling the technologies that reduce demand at its source.