Something’s been keeping me up at night: the race to net zero is accelerating.

We’re shifting from a fossil-fuel-based world to one powered by critical minerals. An historic opportunity, but I feel it’s not without risks.

First, environmental and social risks persist.

– In regions with weak governance, mining can cause lasting harm, from deforestation and water stress to community displacement.
– In Indonesia, booming EV-driven nickel demand has fueled rapid expansion, but also marine pollution, deforestation, and conflict with local communities.

Next, supply is still highly concentrated.

– A few countries play an outsized role in both mining and processing.
– The DRC supplies around 80% of global cobalt, China accounts for ~70% of rare-earth production and nearly 90% of processing, and Indonesia provides nearly 50% of the world’s nickel, especially for EV batteries.

Then there are the new geopolitical hotspots emerging,

– In Africa, countries like the DRC, Mali, and Guinea are asserting control through export bans and license revocations.
– In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is developing a $2.5 trillion state-led minerals sector, deepening ties with China while balancing its long-standing relationship with the U.S.
– In Central and East Asia, growing mineral discoveries are critical to the energy transition. However, rising geopolitical fragmentation is making resource access increasingly regional.
– Meanwhile, Chile, which produces around 27% of global copper, faces political uncertainty. The 2025 election could redefine the future of state-owned Codelco and reshape global access to copper and lithium.

As a result, my view is that a new set of rules of engagement have emerged.

Some governments (and companies) are compromising long-term standards for short-term gains.

For example, this year, the U.S. paused enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), a landmark anti-bribery law. The stated aim was to “level the playing field” with Chinese and Russian firms, which often operate with fewer legal constraints in high-risk regions.

The backlash was immediate. The move weakened global anti-corruption norms, strained relations with European allies, and signaled tolerance for unethical conduct. In the long run, it risks eroding the very governance frameworks that support responsible growth.

Lastly, and as I’ve often stated, copper appears to be the “most technology-agnostic metal.” My team and I are paying close to attention to this, and we’ve got some interesting stories coming out soon about copper-centric mining projects in Scandinavia.

Watch this space – Alpha Future Funds is investing in it.