Category: Mining

Something’s been keeping me up at night: the race to net zero is accelerating.

We’re shifting from a fossil-fuel-based world to one powered by critical minerals. An historic opportunity, but I feel it’s not without risks.

First, environmental and social risks persist.

– In regions with weak governance, mining can cause lasting harm, from deforestation and water stress to community displacement.
– In Indonesia, booming EV-driven nickel demand has fueled rapid expansion, but also marine pollution, deforestation, and conflict with local communities.

Next, supply is still highly concentrated.

– A few countries play an outsized role in both mining and processing.
– The DRC supplies around 80% of global cobalt, China accounts for ~70% of rare-earth production and nearly 90% of processing, and Indonesia provides nearly 50% of the world’s nickel, especially for EV batteries.

Then there are the new geopolitical hotspots emerging,

– In Africa, countries like the DRC, Mali, and Guinea are asserting control through export bans and license revocations.
– In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is developing a $2.5 trillion state-led minerals sector, deepening ties with China while balancing its long-standing relationship with the U.S.
– In Central and East Asia, growing mineral discoveries are critical to the energy transition. However, rising geopolitical fragmentation is making resource access increasingly regional.
– Meanwhile, Chile, which produces around 27% of global copper, faces political uncertainty. The 2025 election could redefine the future of state-owned Codelco and reshape global access to copper and lithium.

As a result, my view is that a new set of rules of engagement have emerged.

Some governments (and companies) are compromising long-term standards for short-term gains.

For example, this year, the U.S. paused enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), a landmark anti-bribery law. The stated aim was to “level the playing field” with Chinese and Russian firms, which often operate with fewer legal constraints in high-risk regions.

The backlash was immediate. The move weakened global anti-corruption norms, strained relations with European allies, and signaled tolerance for unethical conduct. In the long run, it risks eroding the very governance frameworks that support responsible growth.

Lastly, and as I’ve often stated, copper appears to be the “most technology-agnostic metal.” My team and I are paying close to attention to this, and we’ve got some interesting stories coming out soon about copper-centric mining projects in Scandinavia.

Watch this space – Alpha Future Funds is investing in it.

We’re consuming more energy than ever.

Despite record investments in renewables, global energy use continues to rise, driven by industrialization, electrification, and AI.

Old sources haven’t disappeared

Coal use has more than doubled since 1980. It still provides ~28% of global energy and over a third of electricity, especially in China, India, and Southeast Asia.
– Oil and gas remain dominant worldwide. So far, there’s no full “transition”; only diversification at the margins.

Energy systems don’t evolve through clean breaks. New sources rarely eliminate old ones. They’re persistent, but not because they’re better. It’s typically because demand is growing faster than clean alternatives can scale.

It’s this persistence (and in some cases dependence) that delays net zero.

Every new wave of demand (from EVs to heat pumps to AI) adds another energy layer instead of replacing the old one.

tl;dr:

We’re burning more, not less. This trend has held for as long as nations have been industrializing.

Some specific minerals also persist. Copper, for example, is what I have often called the “most technology-agnostic metal.” It seems that regardless of the specific innovation, copper is always near the top of the Bill of Materials.

– Developed economies phase out coal, then offshore steel and aluminium manufacture to coal-heavy regions like China.
– Solar and wind are scaling, but they need massive amounts of minerals, which require fossil fuels to mine and refine.

There is a “clean energy transition” happening, but it’s slow, uneven, and often undermined by the very systems it’s trying to change.

In some cases, even the transition supply chain is under strain

The backbone of the transition (mining, metals, refining) is energy intensive. And it’s being outbid.

AI is having a simply massive impact on power demand:
– Data centers may consume up to 8% of global electricity by 2040 (more than aviation).
– In the U.S., power use by data centers is projected to rise 130% by 2030, reaching 425 TWh, or nearly half of total new demand.
– Hyperscalers lock in power at $100–115/MWh, while smelters (aluminium, copper, nickel) require $40/MWh to survive.

Result

Smelters are shutting down. In the U.S., only 6 primary aluminium smelters remain, down from 33 in 1980. Europe faces similar closures.
Without domestic smelting, Western countries lose control over critical materials and become more dependent on China or the DRC.

What does this mean?

If the sectors that enable the energy transition, like mining and refining, can’t afford energy, the system risks collapse.
That’s why we back technologies that reduce the energy intensity of extraction, digitize and optimize industrial operations, and support cleaner, more cost-efficient metals production.
A future with both renewables and the infrastructure to sustain them.

At Alpha Future Funds, we’re enabling the technologies that reduce demand at its source.

Copper is vital for the energy transition, but Europe still imports 50%+ of what it needs.

Global demand is set to double from 25 Mt (2020) to over 50 Mt by 2050. EVs use 4× more copper than combustion cars, while wind and solar require copper-heavy infrastructure. In Europe, demand is projected to rise ~35%.

But mine output just can’t keep up.

• Europe has a structural shortfall. EU mines cover just ~20% of the bloc’s 4.1 Mt annual demand. Copper is now listed as a Strategic Raw Material under the CRM Act.
• Supply is highly concentrated. About 45% of reserves are in unstable regions like the DR Congo and Latin America. In 2023, unrest in Peru put 30% of national output at risk, halting major mines like Las Bambas. In 2025, the DRC extended its cobalt export ban, a reminder of how quickly governments can disrupt supply chains.
• China dominates refining, producing just 1.8 Mt but controlling up to 53% of global refined copper output. The U.S. has launched a national security review and imposed 50% tariffs in order to strengthen its own production.

In my view, Europe is at risk of falling behind.

The EU signed supply deals with Canada, Ukraine, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Chile, Zambia, and DR Congo to promote ethical sourcing and diversify supply. But partnerships and recycling can’t match demand. Many partner countries — like Namibia, Indonesia, Chile — are restricting raw exports or pushing for more local value creation.

These nations also face growing domestic demand, making long-term supply to Europe uncertain. Europe must boost domestic mining and refining to stay competitive and secure its energy transition.

At Alpha, this is top of mind when we are reviewing investments. We look to unlock new supply, enable greener extraction and refining, and power smarter, more efficient use across the energy transition.